The Long Term Health of the Party

I’m beginning to think that a Bush win could be the best possible panacea for the Democratic Party in the long-term.

Regardless of who wins, the next President of the United States is going to inherit:

• a guerilla war in Iraq, replete with beheadings, fleeing coalition partners, and porous open borders. And no one will help us. Germany today has said that they would be willing to send in troops, but only for Kerry.
• record deficits which are increasing exponentially, exacerbated by a weak dollar
• failed energy and environmental policies
• failed education policies
• record high oil prices (and record high gas prices)
• high-tech jobs as well as manufacturing jobs have fled the country, leaving us with low-paying jobs with no benefits
• the religious right has gained a foothold in amending the Constitution

Regardless of who wins:

• the housing bubble will burst
• interest rates will rise
• medical costs will double AGAIN
• the cost of gas will double AGAIN

AND, Supreme Court seats will be vacated.

But Bush will probably not be able to appoint overtly right-wing judges, given the polarized climate in DC. The right-wing will turn on him. The citizens will turn on him, and the Republicans will lose the Senate, the House and the Presidency in 2008, probably to John Edwards, or Gov of VA Mark Warren, also a looker. Other prominent Democratic Governors include Bob Holden from Missouri, Mike Easley from NC. I like Brad Henry, Gov of OK, but he's only 40, and he looks like a liberal. Could we one day hope that someone like the Jewish Governor of Pennsylvania, Bob Rendell would be elected? Probably not in 2008. There are several other Democratic Governors, even in the South, but they don't have the national footprint to aspire to higher office.

In any event, in 2008, peace and prosperity will be restored. We will have at least another 8 years of Pax Americana under the Democrats. International relations will be restored. Innovation will again be prized and rewarded in this country. We will fix education, healthcare and civil liberties.

This could be great.

If Kerry wins, the Republicans will turn on him on Day 1. They will blame him for not being able to fix Bush's blunders fast enough. Right wing donations to the GOP will reach record-breaking levels, and McCain will oust him in 2008. Or worse, Schwartzenegger.

Niall Ferguson, a Harvard/Oxford/Hoover Institute historian, compared the situation to John Major's election to a second term, and subsequent ouster in 1997, in a piece in the Wall Street Journal in late August.

Money quote:

"The lesson of British history is that a second Bush term could be more damaging to the Republicans and more beneficial to the Democrats than a Bush defeat. If he secures re-election, President Bush can be relied upon to press on with a foreign policy based on pre-emptive military force, to ignore the impending fiscal crisis (on the Cheney principle that "deficits don't matter") and to pursue socially conservative objectives like the constitutional ban on gay marriage. Anyone who thinks this combination will serve to maintain Republican unity is dreaming; it will do the opposite. Meanwhile, the Dems will have another four years to figure out what the Labour Party finally figured out: It's the candidate, stupid. And when the 2008 Republican candidate goes head-to-head with the American Tony Blair, he will get wiped out."